Subscriber Update - Nov '21

Dear Subscriber,

Welcome to the second issue of Equity Midas Capital’s Subscriber Update.

Q2-IY2021-22 (IY = Investment Year, June to May) was a very critical quarter for Indian companies. After a string of quarters impacted by Covid-19, this was the first quarter where neither the production nor the consumption was hit by the pandemic. The operations and results of the companies were not impacted by lock-downs or supply-chain issues or non-availability of labour. The results declared are a direct reflection of company performance without any external impact.

The last few months were also very eventful for the markets, more so in the Primary Markets. Investment in IPOs seemed to be the quickest way to get rich and then came Paytm, to spoil the party. A lot of money moved from secondary markets to the newly listed IPOs. This can been seen from the FII trade data. Retail participation has been strong in both the primary and secondary markets.

It has also been a quarter where political focus has shifted back to elections and pandemic induced optimism (yes, optimism) has gone through some tempering.

The news about a new Covid variant has caused quick correction in the markets. Nifty 50 has fallen from 18600 to 17000 and according to many experts, this is a warranted healthy correction. Market sentiments have turned sour and so has our recommendations performance.

Sometimes the headline indices do not show the true picture of the market. Large/Mega cap companies have too high a weightage in the indices to show the correct impact on the broader markets. The correction in the broader market (small and mid cap stocks) is deeper than what the index suggests.

This quarter was also very significant for Equity Midas Capital. We launched our third product (Strength of Nifty50, SoN50) for subscription to existing subscribers only. We are also on-track to launch the same portfolio on SmallCase in Jan 2022. More about this portfolio in the “Current Affairs” section below.

Note: We publish these letters every 3 months, in the first week of September, December, March and June.  This also allows us to collate & analyse the results published for the previous quarter and include the same here.

Aggregated Performance

As on 30th Nov 2021, average holding period of our recommendations has been 6 months. As you know our recommended holding period is typically 1 year; this means we have completed half of our recommended holding period. 

Focus continues to perform better than Nifty 200 by over 5.5% while Feast returns are inline with Nifty 500 though down by 1.5%.

Overall, this quarter the benchmark indices (Nifty 200 and Nifty 500) have out-performed the EVM portfolios (Focus & Feast).

Unrealised Returns, As On Nov 30 2021 (before fees & taxes, including dividends)


The graphs below show the daily performance of Focus and Feast in comparison with their respecting benchmarks, till Nov-30.

Key Observations

  • Feast has a larger composition of industrials, cements, metals & chemical companies. Unfortunately these sectors have underperformed this quarter impacting the portfolio performance.
  • Large and mid cap stocks continue to out-perform small caps.
  • Post results some stocks corrected despite the results being positive. Their performance should improve in this quarter. 
  • Most of the underperformance can be attributed to companies not meeting expected operational performance.
  • June tranche stock have underperformed the portfolio by a huge margin, something surely that we will look in to:
    • April Tranche – 23.8%
    • May Tranche – 17.95%
    • June Tranche – (10.72%)
  • Overall the model portfolio performance trend is in-line with the market performance.

Operating Performance Analysis - EVM View

We analyse operating performance against the expectations derived by EVM. In a typical year by Q2, anything above 40% of expected performance is good performance. This year though, with Q1 numbers impacted due to Covid, judging this number is a bit difficult. Different companies were impacted differently.

So to review the performance of the companies we created four quadrants.

Quadrant 1 – Poor Performance (< 30% of expected performance achieved by Q2)

Quadrant 2 – Adequate Performance (30% to 40% of expected performance achieved by Q2)

Quadrant 3 – Good Performance (40%-50% of expected performance achieved by Q2)

Quadrant 4 – Excellent Performance (>50% of expected performance achieved by Q2)

Based on this grouping here is how we see the results:

QUADRANT 1 8 3.7%
QUADRANT 2 9 8.4%
QUADRANT 3 9 13.6%
QUADRANT 4 8 12.9%
As seen from the table above, returns generated by companies in Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 are much better as compared to companies in Quadrant 1 and 2. This is in line with the model expectations. Unfortunately the number of companies in Quadrant 1 and 2 are very high which is pushing the returns down.
Also note that in Quadrant 1, all the stocks are Small Cap stocks.

Investor Queries

Q1. Why have the recommendations underperformed the benchmark indices this quarter?

Ans: Yes, this quarter has been a tough one for the recommendations. Aggregate performance of a hypothetical equal-weighted portfolio of Focus recommendations continues to do better than the benchmark though the margin has come down while Feast performance is inline with the benchmarks but lower by about 1.5%. Since Feast started this quarter with over 3% of out-performance, it has lost about 4.5% as compared to the benchmark.

Till mid-October or before the results started coming in, the portfolios were doing very well. Once the results started coming in, companies that did not perform as per the expectations, showed a drop in their market value. Metals make up almost 30% of our portfolio, and these companies are not doing good currently as their prices in the international markets are falling. These cycles can reserve very fast as we have seen earlier.

Let see how the portfolio has performed if we split it by market cap. As you can see in the table below, large & mid caps have delivered 16.2% returns while small caps have only managed 7.4% returns in the first 6 months.  If you look at the PE ratios of small caps, the average PE ratio is 12.6. This is much lower as compared to the average PE of large caps, which is very high at 36.

Large caps will need to perform very well to justify this high PE while the expectations from small caps are manageable. If Small caps perform per expectations in the next two quarters, the returns should improve fast.

LARGE\MID CAP 36.0 16.2%
SMALL CAP 12.6 7.4%

Q2. Some companies in the portfolio have not generated positive returns since we bought them. Can’t we not sell them?

Ans: EVM is based on the concept of a portfolio and not individual stocks. It has also been tested as a portfolio.  The test conditions need to be replicated in real life to expect similar results. Taking a loss mid-way of the holding period or booking profit are not a part of the test conditions. We will hence not recommend selling stocks that have not performed yet. This does not mean that we are confident that these stocks will deliver better returns in the future. It just means that we do not know how they will perform and hence we stick to the model test conditions.

Another aspect of selling a position is the availability of opportunity to invest. We do not have any alternatives to suggest until the model is run next year. 

Current Affairs

We continue to work on new portfolio offerings. The concept of EVM (performance against expectations drives the returns) can be applied on various stock groups or on alternative timelines (like quarterly instead of yearly) or even more markets. The flexibility of EVM will help us build more products, but the key lies in testing. We will never launch a product unless we have thoroughly tested it. Remember, “Responsibility First”.

This quarter we have launched one new portfolio for subscription, Strength of Nifty50 (SON50) portfolio. This is a quarterly rebalanced portfolio that includes stock only from the Nifty50 index constituents. Those stocks from the index constituents which have preformed better than the expectations are filtered in the portfolio. The back tests have shown good performance, over 6.5% returns per quarter on average. This portfolio can be considered as an alternative for index investing. 

We plan to publish SON50 on SmallCase from Jan 2022. The only problem is that SmallCase will entail an additional burden of almost 24% on the fees. That is because SmallCase charges 20% + GST on the advisor fees. Hence the question/dilemma; is it worth paying 24% extra just to avoid the hassle of buying stocks 1 by 1 thru your broker manually. 


Ranking of Stocks

Ranking is turning out to be much more complicated that our initial assessment. The key reason being that the results data availability is spread over one and a half month and that is a long time for the stocks to move. This impacts the returns of the portfolio. We will continue to work since this is one feature almost all subscribers have asked for. Limiting the number of stocks to a certain fixed number helps in easier capital allocation.


Chef's Corner - Are you investing in the markets or companies?

Equity is misunderstood to be the tool to make big money, quickly. This stems from the fact that equities are traded on the markets and markets offer multiple lucrative ways to make money viz. short term bets (position and swing trading), derivatives, high liquidity, easy hop in, hop off, almost zero transaction costs, ability to invest anywhere in the world and many more. The incentive to hold on to your investments for a long term was further lost when long term capital gains tax rate was brought very close to the short term capital gains tax rate.

Equity investments is hence being replaced by market investments or trading. People are trying to make money from markets rather than ownership of companies, which is what equity investments should be.

Equity investments should make money when the underlying company makes more money. This cannot happen in a jiffy. Even the fastest growing companies need years to establish themselves, be profitable and generate wealth for their owners (share holders).

Have said this, to build an strong equity portfolio is critical to generate wealth. I have written a detailed blog on this topic and I suggest all those who want to build wealth using equity should go thru it. Here is the link. Do let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Thank you & Regards,
Ashish Arole
Equity Midas Capital
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Detailed Operating Performance Analysis - As on Feb 28, 2022

1JunSMALL CAPNucleus Software Exports Ltd.1.27-33.38NUCLEUS53120926.79
1AprSMALL CAPThangamayil Jewellery Ltd.19.9140.93THANGAMAYL53315835.69
1JunSMALL CAPAuro Laboratories Ltd.21.89-45.2353023314.57
1MaySMALL CAPRefex Industries Ltd.27.32-15.63REFEX5328848.96
1JunSMALL CAPKanchi Karpooram Ltd.30.09-30.935388967.91
1JunSMALL CAPMangalam Organics Ltd.36.438.08MANORG5144188.72
1MaySMALL CAPShree Digvijay Cement Company Ltd.36.92-1.49SHREDIGCEM50218013.77
1MaySMALL CAPTata Metaliks Ltd.38.62-29.21TATAMETALI5134349.00
2JunSMALL CAPPermanent Magnets Ltd.41.3423.23PERMAGNET50413216.65
2MaySMALL CAPHigh Energy Batteries (India) Ltd.43.3363.2850417616.22
2MaySMALL CAPHIL Ltd.47.14-14.38HIL50967514.12
2JunSMALL CAPThe Grob Tea Company Ltd.49.1-29.48GROBTEA30.16
2AprLARGE\MID CAPBajaj Finance Ltd.51.0928.62BAJFINANCE50003471.11
2MaySMALL CAPAssociated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd.54.484.15ASALCBR50752613.26
2JunSMALL CAPBajaj Healthcare Ltd.54.9-4.19BAJAJHCARE53987211.44
2MayLARGE\MID CAPPI Industries Ltd.60.43-5.42PIIND52364244.94
3MaySMALL CAPAction Construction Equipment Ltd.60.9528.64ACE53276222.97
3MayLARGE\MID CAPChambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Ltd.61.0334.46CHAMBLFERT5000858.84
3MayLARGE\MID CAPUltratech Cement Ltd.62.89-1.54ULTRACEMCO53253829.17
3MaySMALL CAPKNR Constructions Ltd.63.0241.03KNRCON53294225.09
3JunLARGE\MID CAPShree Cement Ltd.63.13-11.09SHREECEM50038735.74
3MaySMALL CAPDolat Investments Ltd.63.1813.86DOLATALGO5055267.57
3MayLARGE\MID CAPIpca Laboratories Ltd.65.69-4.82IPCALAB52449430.48
3MayLARGE\MID CAPMuthoot Finance Ltd.66.63-8.29MUTHOOTFIN53339813.66
3JunSMALL CAPBCL Industries Ltd.68.5640.64BCLIND52433211.97
3MayLARGE\MID CAPAlkem Laboratories Ltd.75.3410.83ALKEM53952322.05
4AprLARGE\MID CAPSRF Ltd.77.2883.54SRF50380622.16
4JunSMALL CAPGujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd.79.0515.86GAEL52422610.09
4MaySMALL CAPK.P.R. Mill Ltd.80.97129.61KPRMILL53288927.03
4AprSMALL CAPBhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd.81.97-16.81BEPL5000525.09
4AprSMALL CAPLA TIM Metal & Industries Ltd.92.4416.135056935.88
4MaySMALL CAPGodawari Power And Ispat Ltd.97.8834.57GPIL5327343.18
4MaySMALL CAPKirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd.98.57-13.33KIRLFER5002455.89
4JunSMALL CAPSandur Manganese & Iron Ores Ltd.134.6253.525049185.22

Detailed Operating Performance Analysis - As on 30 Nov 2021

1JunSMALL CAPNucleus Software Exports Ltd.0%-27.4%21.9
1AprSMALL CAPThangamayil Jewellery Ltd.13%70.2%31.8
1JunSMALL CAPAuro Laboratories Ltd.15%-38.8%11.9
1MaySMALL CAPRefex Industries Ltd.18%-16.6%7.5
1JunSMALL CAPKanchi Karpooram Ltd.20%-23.4%6.3
1JunSMALL CAPMangalam Organics Ltd.26%22.8%8.5
1MaySMALL CAPAssociated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd.30%17.4%14.1
1JunSMALL CAPPermanent Magnets Ltd.30%25.7%16.1
2MaySMALL CAPShree Digvijay Cement Company Ltd.31%14.6%14.4
2MaySMALL CAPHigh Energy Batteries (India) Ltd.32%70.2%15.9
2MaySMALL CAPTata Metaliks Ltd.33%-18.6%9.0
2AprLARGE\MID CAPBajaj Finance Ltd.33%28.5%84.9
2MaySMALL CAPHIL Ltd.36%-10.0%13.8
2JunSMALL CAPBajaj Healthcare Ltd.37%-13.8%11.5
2MaySMALL CAPAction Construction Equipment Ltd.38%23.0%22.2
2MayLARGE\MID CAPPI Industries Ltd.39%9.8%55.1
2JunSMALL CAPThe Grob Tea Company Ltd.40%-28.2%17.4
3JunSMALL CAPBCL Industries Ltd.42%-17.1%8.6
3JunLARGE\MID CAPShree Cement Ltd.43%-5.1%35.9
3MayLARGE\MID CAPMuthoot Finance Ltd.44%-3.7%14.3
3MaySMALL CAPDolat Investments Ltd.44%24.0%8.3
3MayLARGE\MID CAPChambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Ltd.45%28.1%8.9
3AprLARGE\MID CAPSRF Ltd.45%54.9%40.1
3MayLARGE\MID CAPUltratech Cement Ltd.46%11.4%33.7
3MayLARGE\MID CAPIpca Laboratories Ltd.46%1.8%26.6
3MaySMALL CAPKNR Constructions Ltd.48%28.1%22.5
4JunSMALL CAPGujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd.52%-5.1%8.2
4MayLARGE\MID CAPAlkem Laboratories Ltd.54%20.4%24.5
4MaySMALL CAPK.P.R. Mill Ltd.55%91.6%24.1
4AprSMALL CAPLA TIM Metal & Industries Ltd.59%-19.1%3.1
4AprSMALL CAPBhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd.61%3.1%5.4
4MaySMALL CAPGodawari Power And Ispat Ltd.68%17.3%3.2
4MaySMALL CAPKirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd.74%-4.8%6.0
4JunSMALL CAPSandur Manganese & Iron Ores Ltd.143%-0.1%4.1

EVM Guidelines for Operating Performance Classification

EVM states that the market performance of any stock is closely correlated to the underlying company’s expected operating performance. Every quarter we analyse the operating performance of the recommended stocks against the expectations calculated by EVM.


We rank the recommendations based on the operating performance and group them in 4 quadrants based on expectations achieved in that quarter. Here is how we group them:



[gdoc key = “https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Q9md31DDXq-0QFW5QZ-prVy6wJmc86GWe5ch-Qj48Q/edit?#gid=972865918″ use_cache=no class=”no-datatables” query=”select O,P,Q,R,S limit 5″ csv_headers=1 header_rows=1]

According to EVM, the group meeting the expectations for that quarter should deliver better than market returns.






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Your right to use EquityMidas is not transferable. Any password or right given to you to obtain information, content, document or messages (via email or SMS on mobile) is not transferable. Any violation in the same will be considered as a breach of these Terms of Use and liable to immediate account termination without any refund of the active subscription.


By using this website, it is deemed that you have consented to receiving emails, calls, autodialed and/or pre-recorded message calls, text messages (SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal or any other similar apps), from us or our vendors, at any time, on the telephone number / contact information that has been provided by you even if the contact number you have entered is on DND (Do not Disturb), for the use of this Website or our services. We may send inquiry confirmation/ intimation, subscription confirmation, cancellation, payment confirmation, schedule change or any such other information relevant for the transaction on the contact number given by the User at the time of registration / reservation. We may also contact you to clarify your inquiry, seek additional details pertaining to it, etc. Our text messages (SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal or any other similar apps), alerts will be subject to guidelines of Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) and Department of Telecom (DoT) as well as to the terms and conditions of third-party merchants, services of whom EquityMidas might avail of. By signing up for alerts, you agree to allow us to send you alerts, even if your number is registered in the Do Not Disturb (DND) registry. We do not commit, guarantee, assure or promise any returns based on our recommendations. You act solely based on your individual risk-bearing ability and your perception of the equities market. You hereby unconditionally consent that such communications via text messages (SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal or any other similar apps) and/ or voice call is (a) upon your request and authorization, (b) ‘transactional’ and not an ‘unsolicited commercial communication’ as per the guidelines of Telecom Regulation Authority of India (TRAI) and (c) in compliance with the relevant guidelines of TRAI or such other authority in India and abroad. We may provide all recommendations via website, text messages (SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal or any other similar apps), Email & other app notification. The deliveries of the text messages (SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal or any other similar apps) on national and international numbers are solely dependent on the vendor’s infrastructure and the network of the receiver. We will not be responsible on delayed in delivery or non-delivery of the alerts/messages. You hereby agree and undertake to indemnify us against all types of losses and damages incurred by us due to any action taken by TRAI, Access Providers (as per TRAI regulations) or any other authority due to any erroneous compliant raised by you against us with respect to the intimations mentioned above or due to a wrong number or email id being provided by you for any reason whatsoever.

No Warranty

THE SERVICES AND THE SOFTWARE/MODEL/WEBSITE ARE PROVIDED “AS IS” WITHOUT ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR NON-INFRINGEMENT. THE SOFTWARE/MODEL MAY CONTAIN DEFECTS, BUGS, INOPERABLE FEATURES, ERRORS OR INCOMPLETE CODE. You assume total responsibility and risk for your use of the Service and the Software. EquityMidas does not guarantee that the Service or the Software will be uninterrupted or error free; it is provided on an “as available” basis. EquityMidas and its affiliates do not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the news and information available through the Service. You acknowledge that any reliance upon any such news, statements or other information shall be at your sole risk. EquityMidas does not guarantee the accuracy of the information available through the Service and you agree not to rely on any information or other content available through the Service without making your own independent investigation and exercising you own business judgments. Neither EquityMidas nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors or delays in the information or other content available through the Service, or for any action taken in reliance thereon. No offer on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities is intended or implied, and nothing contained herein is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. NRI Users must ensure that stocks recommended by us are not in RBI ban list before investing or executing the order with their trading member.


You agree to indemnify, save, and hold EquityMidas, its affiliates, contractors, employees, officers, directors, agents and its third party associates, licensors, and partners harmless from any and all claims, losses, damages, and liabilities, costs and expenses, including without limitation legal fees and expenses, arising out of or related to your use or misuse of the services or of the Website, any violation by you of these Terms of Use, or any breach of the representations, warranties, and covenants made by you herein. EquityMidas reserves the right, at your expense, to assume the exclusive defence and control of any matter for which you are required to indemnify EquityMidas, including rights to settle, and you agree to cooperate with EquityMidas defense and settlement of these claims. EquityMidas will use reasonable efforts to notify you of any claim, action, or proceeding brought by a third party that is subject to the foregoing indemnification upon becoming aware of it.

Limitation of Liability

Notwithstanding anything to the contrary contained herein, neither EquityMidas nor its affiliated companies, subsidiaries, officers, directors, employees or any related party shall not have any liability to you or to any third party for any indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages or any loss of revenue or profits arising under or relating to these Terms of Use. To the maximum extent permitted by law, you waive, release, discharge and hold harmless EquityMidas its affiliated and subsidiary companies, and each of their directors, officers, employees, and agents, from any and all claims, losses, damages, liabilities, expenses and causes of action arising out of your use of the Website.

Availability and updating of the Site

EquityMidas may suspend the operation of the Site for repair or maintenance work or in order to update or upgrade its content or functionality from time to time. EquityMidas does not warrant that access to or use of the Site or of any sites or pages linked to it will be uninterrupted or error free. EquityMidas may change the format and content of the Site at its sole discretion from time to time. You should refresh your browser each time you visit the Site to ensure that you access the most up to date version of the Site. EquityMidas reserves the right to add, alter, modify, withdraw, replace, wholly or in part, any of the contents and/or columns and/or sections by any other contents and/or columns and/or sections, whether similar or not, or withdraw it altogether without any prior notice. In case of dispute with any party, our decision will be binding and final.


In the event any provision of this Terms of Use is found invalid or unenforceable pursuant to judicial decree or decision, the remainder of this Terms of Use shall remain valid and enforceable according to its terms.

Special Rights conferred to European Citizens/ Data Subjects

The Privacy policy shall supersede over the contrary terms specified in this Terms of use.

Suggestions, Complaints, And Disputes

Suggestions and complaints are to be first addressed to Customer Support at research@EquityMidas.com

Privacy Policy

Our Privacy Policy, which may change from time to time, is an integral part of this Terms of Use and shall be read along with this Terms of Use.

Applicable Laws

Your use of this Website and any Term and Conditions is subject to laws of India. In case of any disputes arising out of the use of the Website, Courts of Pune will have exclusive jurisdiction.

Risk Profiling Disclaimer

You agree that the services provided is only in the form of recommendations on the potential investment opportunities and we are not responsible for any losses that may be caused on the investment decisions taken based on our recommendations. We would recommend you to segregate your capital and investments into multiple products (time deposits, corporate bonds and equity). Investment of entire capital into equity stocks is absolutely not recommended. You would not bring any claim to EquityMidas, and/ or its group entities, or any officers, employees or our agents in respect of any or all losses, direct or indirect damages, claims, proceedings, cost and expenses suffered by you or any one for the decisions undertaken based on our recommendations. You are recommended to independently evaluate whether to make an investment or not. We would not be responsible for any losses that are caused on account of investment decisions taken by you which do not match your risk profile.