Subscriber Update – May ’22
Dear Subscriber,
Welcome to the fourth issue of Equity Midas Capital’s Subscriber Update.
May 31, 2022 marked the closure of our FY2021-22 recommendations. On this day, we issued SELL recommendation for all the BUY recommendations issued last year, except those stocks that have been shortlisted this year again.
An equal-weighted portfolio of our FY2021-22 FEAST recommendations yielded 8.6% returns including dividends. While the returns did manage to beat the benchmark index returns marginally, they are not per our expectations. We will try to analyze the reasons of this underperformance in the letter.
Q4-IY2021-22 (IY = Investment Year, Q4 = Mar 2022 – May 2022) saw the world grapple with the effects of Russia-Ukraine war. High commodity inflation has forced governments and central banks take corrective action. Our portfolio was hit negatively by such an action, more on this later. Supply chain issues are further adding to the inflationary troubles for global companies. This is being reflected in the stock markets which saw steep corrections in April-May 2022 and as we write this letter in the second week of June, the fall seems to have accelerated.
While the setup is negative globally, I personally see this as an excellent opportunity for Indian companies. China +1 policy is gaining ground and India can fit in the role of +1 perfectly. Consumption has not yet shown signs of a slowdown and capex cycle is not yet showing any slowdown. Ultratech’s 12,886 crore capex plan is one such example.
The strong export sectors for India (IT, Pharma, Chemicals) can continue to do well even in this difficult environment. Companies in the agri sector are also expected to do better considering strong focus on food security.
Portfolio Performance - FY2021-22
As on May 31, 2022, average holding period of our recommendations completed 1 year. We also had the FY2022-23 recommendations shortlisted. This meant that we issued SELL for FY2021-22 recommendations and BUY recommendation for FY2022-23 shortlisted stocks. All except 2 stocks recommended in FY2021-22 have been recommended a SELL. These 2 stocks were shortlisted for the FY2022-23 recommendations.
In aggregate the FEAST recommendations delivered 8.6% returns. The returns are lower than our expectations but exactly in-line with the EVM tenets. EVM states that stock returns follow the difference between the operating performance of the company and the expectations of the market. In the 34 recommended stocks, only 11 companies were able to meet or beat the EVM derived expectations. These 11 companies delivered an average of 46.6% returns. The other 23 stocks which were not able to deliver the expected returns delivered -9.5% returns.
| MET EXPECTATIONS | NUMBER OF COMPANIES | AVERAGE RETURNS |
|---|---|---|
| N | 23.00 | -9.51 |
| Y | 11.00 | 46.61 |
Realised Returns, As On May 31, 2022 (before fees & taxes, including dividends)
| PORTFOLIO | NUMBER OF STOCKS | TOTAL RETURNS (%) Incl Dividends | BENCHMARK | BENCHMARK RETURNS (%) | AVG HOLDING PERIOD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOCUS (LARGE & MID CAP) | 9 | 8.85 | NIFTY 200 | 7.22 | 1 YEAR |
| FEAST (ALL CAP) | 34 | 8.64 | NIFTY 500 | 7.23 | 1 YEAR |
The graphs below show the daily performance of Focus and Feast in comparison with their respective benchmarks.
Chart comparing returns of EMC FOUCS and FEAST vs Nifty and Nifty 500.
Key Observations
- Despite the many factors that impact market returns, the operating performance stands-out as the most critical factor.
- Though the EVM tenet is correct, the difficulty lies in identifying companies that will meet or beat the expectations next year. The model clearly did not do a good job in this aspect.
- Even if we are able to avoid the blunders (Quadrant 1 companies), the returns would have been close to 20%.
- Small caps form the majority of both Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 4. Large/mid caps give the stability, but small caps have the potential to make or break the portfolio returns.
- We have made improvements in the model so as to avoid stocks which may have shown excellent operating performance due to external factors and which may not be reproduced.
- We had this situation in FY2021-22 portfolio when Covid induced performance was extrapolated by the model.
- Both Focus and Feast were impacted due to the export duty on metals announced by the government a couple of weeks prior to our planned SELL. This had a significant impact o @5% on the portfolio returns.
- The drop from 28% returns around April end to 8.6% returns by the time we rebalance the portfolio has raised a lot of questions on why we could not have given the SELL call earlier.
- In fact, the FY2022-23 BUY recommendations are down 8% as we publish this letter and the same question has been raised, why did we not delay our recommendations if the market sentiment was this bad. We have answered this in the “Investor Queries” section below.
Operating Performance Analysis - EVM View
As we did in the previous edition of our letter, we have distributed the portfolio companies based on the expectations achieved for the year.
In a typical year, anything above 90% of expected performance is meeting the expectations. This is when we can say that the model shortlisted the companies correctly. We were inclined to give the benefit of Covid in the operating numbers to the companies, but decided against it.
So to review the performance of the companies we created four quadrants.
- Quadrant 1 – Poor Performance (< 60% of expected performance achieved)
- Quadrant 2 – Adequate Performance (60% to 75% of expected performance achieved)
- Quadrant 3 – Good Performance (75%-90% of expected performance achieved)
- Quadrant 4 – Excellent Performance (>90% of expected performance achieved)
Based on this grouping here is how we see the results:
| QUADRANT | COUNT OF COMPANIES | RETURNS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | -25.91 |
| 2 | 7 | -5.59 |
| 3 | 8 | 3.46 |
| 4 | 11 | 46.61 |
| Grand Total | 34 | 8.65 |
As seen from the table above, returns generated by companies in Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 are much better as compared to companies in Quadrant 1 and 2. Higher the ability of the model to identify the companies that can meet or beat the expectations, better will our recommendations perform.
This though is the hardest activity as well. Anything to do with forecasting for the future is basically a guess. We, instead, determine these companies by their track record. This avoids us to make any predictions on the future or make any judgment calls.
Thru out the year, this theme has been consistent. Operating performance over the expectations has a significant effect on the market returns.
Here is the detailed data of the company performance:
| QUADRANT | TRANCHE | MARKET_CAP_CLASS | COMPANY | EXPECTATIONS ACHIEVED | RETURNS | NSE SYMBOL | BSE CODE | MET EXPECTATIONS | PE RATIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun | SMALL CAP | The Grob Tea Company Ltd. | 8.83 | -35.46 | GROBTEA | N | 24.80 | |
| 1 | Jun | SMALL CAP | Nucleus Software Exports Ltd. | 14.99 | -40.1 | NUCLEUS | 531209 | N | 27.10 |
| 1 | Jun | SMALL CAP | Thangamayil Jewellery Ltd. | 29.25 | 25.69 | THANGAMAYL | 533158 | N | 36.20 |
| 1 | Jun | SMALL CAP | Auro Laboratories Ltd. | 31.53 | -47.28 | 530233 | N | 19.20 | |
| 1 | Jun | SMALL CAP | Kanchi Karpooram Ltd. | 36.27 | -42.42 | 538896 | N | 8.40 | |
| 1 | May | SMALL CAP | Mangalam Organics Ltd. | 43 | -26.68 | MANORG | 514418 | N | 9.30 |
| 1 | Jun | SMALL CAP | Refex Industries Ltd. | 49.17 | -19.02 | REFEX | 532884 | N | 7.10 |
| 1 | May | SMALL CAP | HIL Ltd. | 59.83 | -21.99 | HIL | 509675 | N | 15.30 |
| 2 | May | SMALL CAP | Permanent Magnets Ltd. | 60.86 | 1.74 | PERMAGNET | 504132 | N | 13.90 |
| 2 | Apr | SMALL CAP | Shree Digvijay Cement Company Ltd. | 62.54 | -4.55 | SHREDIGCEM | 502180 | N | 16.40 |
| 2 | Apr | SMALL CAP | Tata Metaliks Ltd. | 65.01 | -30.93 | TATAMETALI | 513434 | N | 10.60 |
| 2 | May | SMALL CAP | Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd. | 69.19 | 1.33 | ASALCBR | 507526 | N | 12.90 |
| 2 | Jun | SMALL CAP | Bajaj Healthcare Ltd. | 69.57 | -23.77 | BAJAJHCARE | 539872 | N | 12.00 |
| 2 | May | LARGE\MID CAP | Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Ltd. | 71.29 | 29.49 | CHAMBLFERT | 500085 | N | 9.70 |
| 2 | May | LARGE\MID CAP | Ipca Laboratories Ltd. | 73.54 | -12.43 | IPCALAB | 524494 | N | 25.90 |
| 3 | May | SMALL CAP | High Energy Batteries (India) Ltd. | 78.59 | 36.02 | 504176 | N | 13.60 | |
| 3 | Apr | LARGE\MID CAP | Bajaj Finance Ltd. | 79.38 | 11.74 | BAJFINANCE | 500034 | N | 52.40 |
| 3 | May | LARGE\MID CAP | Shree Cement Ltd. | 83.05 | -19.42 | SHREECEM | 500387 | N | 34.20 |
| 3 | May | LARGE\MID CAP | PI Industries Ltd. | 83.08 | 5.68 | PIIND | 523642 | N | 49.60 |
| 3 | May | LARGE\MID CAP | Ultratech Cement Ltd. | 85.16 | -8.77 | ULTRACEMCO | 532538 | N | 23.90 |
| 3 | May | LARGE\MID CAP | Alkem Laboratories Ltd. | 86.96 | 6.52 | ALKEM | 539523 | N | 22.70 |
| 3 | Jun | LARGE\MID CAP | Muthoot Finance Ltd. | 87.55 | -21.5 | MUTHOOTFIN | 533398 | N | 11.60 |
| 3 | May | SMALL CAP | Action Construction Equipment Ltd. | 88.59 | 17.4 | ACE | 532762 | N | 22.50 |
| 4 | Jun | SMALL CAP | LA TIM Metal & Industries Ltd. | 91.24 | 69.96 | 505693 | Y | 8.20 | |
| 4 | May | SMALL CAP | Dolat Investments Ltd. | 97.87 | 12.41 | DOLATALGO | 505526 | Y | 8.10 |
| 4 | Apr | SMALL CAP | Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd. | 97.98 | -26 | BEPL | 500052 | Y | 5.40 |
| 4 | May | SMALL CAP | KNR Constructions Ltd. | 101.36 | 18.46 | KNRCON | 532942 | Y | 20.70 |
| 4 | Apr | SMALL CAP | K.P.R. Mill Ltd. | 103.52 | 128.14 | KPRMILL | 532889 | Y | 25.70 |
| 4 | May | LARGE\MID CAP | SRF Ltd. | 107.26 | 89.71 | SRF | 503806 | Y | 38.70 |
| 4 | May | SMALL CAP | Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd. | 112.83 | -3.32 | KIRLFER | 500245 | Y | 7.70 |
| 4 | Jun | SMALL CAP | BCL Industries Ltd. | 113.32 | 35.48 | BCLIND | 524332 | Y | 10.20 |
| 4 | May | SMALL CAP | Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd. | 114.77 | 101.01 | GAEL | 524226 | Y | 16.20 |
| 4 | May | SMALL CAP | Godawari Power And Ispat Ltd. | 131.49 | 24.67 | GPIL | 532734 | Y | 3.00 |
| 4 | Jun | SMALL CAP | Sandur Manganese & Iron Ores Ltd. | 192.28 | 62.18 | 504918 | Y | 4.20 |
Investor Queries
Q1. Why could we not give our SELL recommendations earlier or delay the BUY recommendations based on market situation?
Ans: Giving any recommendations (either BUY or SELL) needs to comply with the model. EVM is run every year and when we have the next years recommendations we give out the SELL recommendations for the current stocks.
We generate our recommendations based on a mathematical model. This model runs when we have the annual results data. Hence the May end schedule to release our recommendations. Since we do this every year, in a way we are re-balancing our recommendations. We cannot time the market. We believe in staying in the market as long as possible albeit with the right stocks, hence the rebalancing every year. Market levels or patterns do not play a role in our stock selection or recommendation schedule.
Having said this, all our subscribers should talk to their investment advisors to determine the timing and the capital allocation of their investments.
The only method to provide a pre-mature SELL call will need to be based on some kind analysis that predicts a further fall in the market price for that recommendations. We are aware that technical analysis has these capabilities but that is not something we have enough knowledge about.
Further, what we experienced in May 2022, is not expected to repeat every year. So we are not convinced that early exit calls are the solution, but that is something we will pursue this year. More on this in the “Chef’s Corner” section below.
Q2. What should an investor do when the market is falling so much, so fast?
Ans: Before we comment on this topic, please read our thoughts on building an ideal equity portfolio. Also note that we are a registered Research Analyst. We cannot recommend any capital allocation or give any financial advice. The answer below represents our approach to market corrections.
Market corrections are an opportunity but it certainly is not a department store sale. What worries us when market crashes is the loss in the notional value of our investments and we tend to mis-read this opportunity as an threat. There is fear that any new investment will also fall in value thus adding to the already loss making positions.
So, what if we invest more and the market continues to fall? We like to work it back from the worst possible scenario. Lets try and find the bottom of the market as they say. For the current EPS of 850 Rs. and assuming the 2008 lowest PE of 12 (source: https://nifty-pe-ratio.com), we reach a figure of 10200 for NIFTY50. So this is the worst case scenario. Nifty50 as on date is close to 15000. This means we have another 33% downside possible. There is no point in fearing anything beyond 10K for the reason that the numbers we have assumed are from the worst financial crisis of the century. Having said that, the 10,200 number will change if the EPS numbers change. Note that this bottom calculation will change person to person. My assessment of the current market condition will never match any other individual.
Once we have defined a bottom, let us work out the possibility of such a scenario happening. Lower the Nifty 50, lower the possibility.
If we divide the 5000 point drop in to 10 tranches to get 10 opportunities to invest. Based on your analysis of your investment advisor’s analysis, decide what amount you are comfortable to invest in each of the tranche. Typically the amounts should increase as NIFTY falls. This is because investing at 14500 has a downside risk of 4500 (@30%) point and investing at 12000 has a downside risk of 2000 point (16-17%). So as the risk of downside decreases, your investment amounts can increase.
Why not exit all the positions and be in cash? The problem with this approach is that you are trying to predict the market or time the market. If you are good at this there is no problem at all. For those who are not comfortable to time the market, we can at least ensure that the opportunity to buy at lower levels is not lost.
Also, we believe that one should exit stocks either when they need the money or have a better alternative investment opportunity. If the opportunity presents itself when the market has corrected, do take that opportunity (after consulting with your investment advisor).
Now that we know we can or should invest more when the market falls, what should we buy?
Going back to our idea of an ideal portfolio, we believe that one invests in equity either to build wealth, generate income or expecting a bounty thru some risky bets. Market corrections are great to load on your wealth builder & bounty hunter stocks.
Income generators are typically bought on some advice and you should refer to the advisor on what should be the next steps on those stocks.
Current Affairs
This quarter was spent on marketing efforts and publishing this years recommendations. No progress was made on any other activities. We will continue the efforts on these activities this quarter.
Chef's Corner - Technical Analysis
The sudden drop in the returns this May has meant that technical analysis is now an important subject area for me.
I do not intend to use technical analysis for stock selection, but will look at TA to help determine exits. The idea is that if a TA signal confirms a breakdown in the stock price pattern in the last 2 months of the planned holding period, can we use this for early exit to reduce our losses.
I am not sure I am on the right track but TA has certainly helped a few of my fellow investors reduce the draw-down on their portfolios during these volatile periods. Will be very happy to hear your thoughts on this aspect as well.
Premature exits have not been tested in the model yet. I have not been a believer of Technical Analysis but I do understand that TA is a tool that helps understand the psychology of the market participants. Does TA have a place in EVM? If yes, how can it be used and when will take a lot of my time this year.