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EquityMidas

Subscriber Update - May 2023

A Case For Optimism

Dear Subscriber,

Welcome to the seventh issue of Equity Midas Capital’s Subscriber Updates.

This update marks the beginning of our third year of operations. While we have delivered market beating performance for both the previous years, we expect more this year. We believe that the environment is right for better than average returns this year; looking forward for an outstanding 2023-24.

When we started our operations, the markets had come out of probably the best year ever. Almost every stock had generated 50+% returns. This could not sustain and hence, the expectations were not very positive for the subsequent years. Despite the odds against us, performance of our recommendations in these two years has strengthened our faith in EVM.

Looking back at the performance of the recommendation for year 2022-23, both our products (FOCUS & FEAST) outperformed their respective benchmark indices by a good margin. While FOCUS outperformed FEAST last year, we expect this to reverse in 2023-24 with small caps delivering better returns.

Here is the snapshot of last year’s performance:

PRODUCTNUMBER OF STOCKSCAPITAL RETURNS (%)DIVIDEND RETURNS (%)TOTAL RETURNS (%)BENCHMARKBENCHMARK RETURNS (%)
FOCUS (LARGE & MID CAP)721.661.3022.96Nifty 20011.25
FEAST (ALL CAP)1517.561.4619.03NIFTY 50011.70

What are we so optimistic?

There are four reasons for our optimism:

1) FII buying is back
From March 2023 to May 2023, FII have invested more than 33,000 Crore Rupees in the cash markets. This is the first time since Mar 2021 that FIIs have been net buyers for 3 consecutive months.
FIIs inflows have a good correlation with the small & mid cap returns. We are hence hopeful that this time as well small & mids caps will outperform large caps.

2) Inflation is down
As we write this update, inflation in India and in US is at multi-year lows. Wholesale price corrections has started. At a retail level, the rate of increase of prices has slowed down with the hopes that the price correction is around the corner. With inflation easing focus on growth will be back. Interest rates seem to have peaked and China has even announced a surprise rate cut. India should follow very soon.
Further, this period when wholesale prices are down but retail prices are not yet corrected means better profit margins for the companies, albeit for a short period of time.

3) Election Year
Election years are positive for markets. Governments focus on ensuring that developmental activities gain pace during this time. Increased spend on infrastructure and defense results in a good bump in the overall economic activity.
It is also in the favour of the government to ensure stability in the financial markets this year. Hence, hopefully, there would not be any major policy changes which is what the market prefers.

4) Operational performance has remained strong
Nifty EPS has improved from 533 to 858, from May 2021 to May 2023. In two years, NIFTY50 EPS has shown an improvement of 61%. Since Jan 2020 (just before Covid impact), NIFTY50 EPS has increased by 90%. This growth trajectory is expected to continue barring probably the IT services sector. The same story continues with mid and small cap companies. NIFTY500 EPS has jumped from 422 to 700 in the last 2 years (66% growth).

All these factors should have a combined positive impact on the economy and markets, more so when the valuations are not stretched. Geo-political issues remain a risk, but for now, the situation seems to have reached a state of uneasy equilibrium.

Stock Performance Analysis

A hypothetical equal-weighted portfolio of our recommendations is used to calculate returns for the investment period. All our BUY recommendations released last year (May end, early June) were updated to SELL on 31st May 2023. The returns showed in the table above are as on end of the day, 31st May 2023.

As on end of May 2023, an equal-weighted portfolio of our 2022-23 FEAST recommendations (in other words the average returns for our FEAST recommendations) have yielded 16.8% capital returns i.e. without dividends. FOUCS recommendations have delivered 21.8% capital returns in this period.

Both the portfolios have performed better than their benchmark indices. The overall returns are within the expected range considering the underlying company performances.

Lets see how we got here:

Key Observations

  • Both the portfolios closed near to their peak returns for the year.
  • Small and Micro cap returns improved as FII buying resumed.
  • FEAST demonstrated much higher volatility as compared to the benchmarks and FOCUS.
  • Performance of 1 micro-cap stock has bumped up the performance of the portfolio.
  • Performance is largely in-line with back-test results. In years when markets are flat, EVM returns, while beating the market, are not outstanding.

Operating Performance Analysis - EVM View

Please refer to the EVM Guidelines for Operating Performance Classification to understand how we group the companies based on their annual operational performance.

Based on the guidelines above here is how this year has ended:
QUADRANTNUMBER OF COMPANIESAVERAGE RETURNSEXPECTATIONS ACHIEVED
11-28.07%<=80
254.73%>80 & <90
32-10.99%>90 & <100
4741.58%>100


The average returns of the companies beating expectations is higher than the average returns of the portfoEVM’s EVMs ability to identify companies which will exceed the expectations is the key to our success in the future.
Here is the detailed data of the company performance:
QUADRANTMARKET_CAP_CLASSCOMPANYEXPECTATIONS ACHIEVED (%)RETURNS (%)PE RATIO5 YR MEDIAN PE
1SMALL/MICRO CAPGujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd.46.15-28.0711.921.1
2SMALL/MICRO CAPSharda Cropchem Ltd.80.78-33.0412.027.9
2SMALL/MICRO CAPTimken India Ltd.82.6844.9416.99.6
2LARGE/MID CAPTransport Corporation Of India Ltd.83.4-3.8431.917.1
2LARGE/MID CAPSRF Ltd.87.712.2661.18.7
2LARGE/MID CAPSun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.89.3213.3361.224.0
3SMALL/MICRO CAPApcotex Industries Ltd.94.63-17.9535.96.5
3LARGE/MID CAPCipla Ltd.96.72-4.0214.88.7
4LARGE/MID CAPKama Holdings Ltd.110.134.0447.215.9
4SMALL/MICRO CAPUPL Ltd.110.17-12.1224.439.0
4SMALL/MICRO CAPFineotex Chemical Ltd.113.9262.3621.321.9
4LARGE/MID CAPITC Ltd.118.264.67.043.1
4SMALL/MICRO CAPE.I.D. – Parry (India) Ltd.123.63-15.1956.945.1
4SMALL/MICRO CAPSolar Industries India Ltd.135.0743.2212.016.0
4SMALL/MICRO CAPNitta Gelatin India Ltd.149.02144.1510.217.1

Subscriber Queries

Q1. EVM EXIT strategy needs a revision. Some recommendations did not perform from day 1 and we continued to HOLD them for the entire year. This has impacted the performance for the year.

Ans: We agree with this point 100%. This is certainly one opportunity to improve the performance of the recommendations. When markets are in an uptrend, this aspect is easy to be ignored. In flat markets or in down trends, it is indeed important to add on to the winners and let the losers go.

Theoretically, while this appears correct, there are quite a few complications in actual implementation. The sold stock needs to continue to do worse than the remainder portfolio for the remainder of the holding period. How do we make that judgement call?

To achieve this, we need to be able to design, model and test the strategy before we can give out any recommendations. We are working on this and if we get it right, we might even release our recommendations this year.

Q2. With general elections planned in May 2024, would you recommend early exit this year to avoid the volatility that may follow the results?

Ans:
 We understand that election results do cause volatility in the short run and this may impact the returns for the current year. EVM does not consider macro conditions in its design and hence the answer to this question cannot be based on EVM. We will have to take a judgement call as we approach May 2024. Such calls have 50% chance of being right. There are three scenarios that may unfold if we give a early exit recommendation:

1) If we sell early and the market goes up, the impact is two fold. Current year returns will be lower (that if we would have held upto 31st May) and the next year’s buy recommendations will also come at inflated prices.
2) If we do not sell early and follow EVM, even if the market goes down/up, the loss/profit on the current portfolio will be matched by the change in buy prices of the next year’s recommendations, thereby negating the effect.
3) The only profitable scenario is that we sell early, market goes down and we get the next years recommendations cheaper. Double bonanza with the caveat that the returns will have to bear the STCG impact.

Which scenario may unfold is anybody’s guess, making it difficult to answer this question.

 

Thank you & Regards,
Ashish Arole
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Equity Midas Capital
equitymidas.com
 
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EVM Guidelines for Operating Performance Classification

EVM states that the market performance of any stock is closely correlated to the underlying company’s expected operating performance. Every quarter we analyse the operating performance of the recommended stocks against the expectations calculated by EVM.

 

We rank the recommendations based on the operating performance and group them in 4 quadrants based on expectations achieved in that quarter. Here is how we group them:

 

 

QUADRANT CLASSIFICATION PER EXPECTATIONS ACHIEVED (%) EVERY QUARTER
Quarter 1Quarter 2Quarter 3Quarter 4
Quadrant 1<=20<=40<=60<=80
Quadrant 2>20 & <22.5>40 & <45>60 & <67.5>80 & <90
Quadrant 3>22.5 & < 25>45 & < 50>67.5 & < 75>90 & < 100
Quadrant 4>25>50>75>100

According to EVM, the group meeting the expectations for that quarter should deliver better than market returns.

 

 

 

 

 

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